Coronavirus(COVID-19)Impact on world Economy: Still optimistic about the 2020 market

Md. Shabbir Hasan



The capital of the whole world of 60 -80% is accumulated to the five to ten persons among about 600 crore people. If we think deeply, it is out of imagination. But it is facts and figures. It may be God gift on them, or they are an extreme talent to achieve this asset. Maybe anyone is correct or both are correct. Anyway, I don't want to go there and discuss that. At the same time similarly, the world economy is also limited to the world giant two to five countries and depends only on them. It is very clearing to say that the pandemic coronavirus(COVID-19) is a great epidemic all over the world. The disrupted public life of the world. The people of the world become perplexed. The world has stopped almost. Agriculture, trade, commerce, production, and related to all other financing activities are almost stopped.

But life is not stopped for its natural reasons like hungry and have to move for this. Because necessity knows no law. The economy of the world is to say majorly depends on the economy of the country China and U.S.A. If I say individually, China is such a country which manufactures all kinds of goods like raw materials, semifinished goods and finished goods in every sector like chemical, machinery, engineering, electronics, electrics, it and mostly all others. The most developed and developing countries import these things from China at a reasonable price than others. So the maximum country depends on China products for their industry. On the other hand, the U.S. A is developed with engineering, technology, and Modern war weapons. The USA exports these things to the other countries of the world. So, they depend on the USA. The word of the hope that these two countries vise versa import of their essential and necessary things from another country, and so the economy exist balancing of the world. Let's see the scenery of the economy of the present world.

Twenty one could 2020 million individuals globally square measure stricken by the Coronavirus pandemic, that has claimed many lives, imprisonment public & business, and destroyed the world economies. China and therefore, the U. S., two powerful countries within the world, square measure severely stricken by the virus. China, which was the geographic point of Covid-19, has currently recovered, and therefore, the country has opened the imprisonment in several areas. However, the U. S. has currently become a brand new geographic point of coronavirus as a thousand deaths square measure being rumored in twenty-four hours. The country’s half the population is underneath utterly imprisonment and businesses are closed.

According to Export Genius world trade knowledge, China’s total trade (imports + exports) valued USD four,566 billion and the U.S. recorded total trade of four,213 billion in 2019. Let’s have an initial analysis of however coronavirus impacts the economy of China, the U. S. and alternative countries in 2020.

 Covid-19 Impact on China
***Economy China, once was the geographic point of the coronavirus, is returning to traditional because the range of rumored native transmission cases hovers close to zero, the standard of living is slowly returning to traditional. The country has opened the imprisonment in urban center province which was 1st and badly stricken by the Covid-19 pandemic.

In step with media reports, the following changes are seen from the last number of days: ****
• Factories have reopened — in operation at 2/3 of their capability.
• Flight capability from the country is sick.
• Apple has re-opened all China stores.
• Shoppers are warily returning to malls and restaurants.

However, economic knowledge from the primary 2 months of the year shows the injury done to the country’s finances. Within the gift state of affairs, China has practiced sharp losses in its economy. For example, the state level in China rose from five.2% recorded in Dec 2019 to its highest level on record of vi.2% in February 2020.

 The following figures show China’s endeavor slowed significantly as Covid-19 unfold.
Economic Indicator
Year-over-year Change (Jan-Feb 2020)
Investment in Fixed Assets (Excluding rural household investment)
-24.5%
Retail Sales
-20.5%
Value of Exports
-15.9%
Industrial Production
-13.5%
Services Production
-13.0%

As factories and outlets open, China appears to be over the initial offer aspect shock caused by the imprisonment. However, the country currently faces a double-headed demand shock because of slow production and lots of alternative factors:
• Domestic Demand
The demand for products by native individuals in China is slow to achieve attraction because of bankruptcies, psychological scars, and job losses. During a survey conducted by a Peking money firm, virtually sixty-fifth of respondents conceive to restrain their disbursement habits once the virus.
• Overseas Demand The demand for Chinese products within the International market is suffering as a lot of countries face corona outbreaks. Several stores square measure closing their stores because of imprisonment and worry of virus unfold and canceling orders, resulting in associate degree oversupply of commodities. With a quick recovery superficial is extremely unlikely, several economists project China’s value to shrink within the half-moon of 2020 — the country’s 1st decline since 1976.

Covid-19 Impact on the U.S. Economy
 The U. S. is currently the geographic point of coronavirus, wherever thousands die in twenty-four hours. Concerning half the U.S. population is on stay-at-home orders, severely limiting economic activity and forcing widespread layoffs. Within the week ending March twenty-one, total state insurance claims rose by over three million, reaching their highest level ever. Additionally, producing activity in Japanese Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware born to its lowest level since July 2012. Market analysts have forecasted that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U. S. can contract by -24% in Q2 of 2020, followed by +12% growth in Q3.

How Much Business China and the U.S. did in 2019?
China stratified to prime in world exports, whereas second in the world imports, and therefore, the U. S. stratified prime in imports and second in exports throughout 2019.

Below the given chart and table shows the worth of total import and export commodities recorded by these 2 countries within the aforementioned year.
Country
China
United States
Total Imports in 2019 (Value USD Billion)
2,068
2,568
Total Exports in 2019 (Value USD Billion)
2,498
1,645

Covid-19 Impact on Economy of alternative Countries
Other countries also are feeling the economic impact of Covid-19. As an example, world online bookings for seated diners have declined by 100 percent year-over-year. In Canada, nearly a Meg of individuals have applied for state edges. Countries like Italy and Espana square measure badly stricken by the coronavirus pandemic and stricken by high state. They conjointly expect to visualize economic blows. However, it’s ahead of time to determine the extent of the injury.
As several countries square measure currently underneath imprisonment and industries are underneath ending, the International fund (IMF) has forecasted a worldwide recession in 2020. Separately, the United Nations (UN) has calculable that the Covid-19 might cause up to a $2 trillion insufficiency in world financial gain.

On the brilliant aspect, some economists square measure statement a recovery as early because the third quarter of 2020. A range of things likes the quantity of Covid-19 cases, shopper confidence, and the government stimulant, can play into this timeline.

 Time and tide wait for none. Life never stops for anyone. So the economy of the world will be crashed, I am not aligned with this word. Moreover, we can get prayer to our God to recover us soon. There are two ways to us in very near future days. One may be all bindings or restrictions will be removed, and the world will move on its own nature like all normal movements of people with regular professional activities for a strong economy. Second may be the very conservative like the government will take all responsibilities of all until every person gets recovered from COVID-19. Obviously, second is quite impossible for a long time and ultimately the work is required for food. Anyway, the present scenery is not expected and cannot do for a long time without any productive activities. Man is mortal and is not eternal. So, it would be better to move with works maintaining the highest awareness and precautions.

The crisis of this nature and economy has taught us something? If you realize, of course be repeated and take needful correction to thyself for a beautiful future. The world is not permanently for you and this is very certain to die at any moment. There is not any fraud with others in business and maintain high integrity to all other vise versa. In this COVID-19 epidemic, it is mush fruitful in business to the economy is that both parties will exchange and follow the modest principle in their dealings and financing. Hope the world will recover soon from this epidemic and return in its natural economy nature for the welfare of human being only with our great efforts.

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