Coronavirus (COVID-19) Herd Immunity for Reality — Global Context, and Bangladesh: Look before you Leap

Md. Shabbir Hasan 

  • Coronavirus(COVID-19) is a great pandemic now all over the world. We are now more familiar with this and also have a bitter experience of this. The world has stopped for this and has become disoriented to recover this. There are many types of treatments that are in process in many developed countries and waiting for the final treatment with the decision. Treatment is required much essentially, but we have to check and examine the possibility, stability, longevity, and future side effects of this before implementation. We must consider the short term and long-term effects of the treatment. This is not any trial game or fun but this is the matter of lives. As human beings and learned medical science scholars will take care of this for the best.
  • Coronacalin One word that is often uttered during this terrible time is ‘Herd Immunity’. 'Hard' means 'herd', so 'herd immunity' refers to the overall 'public immunity' of the people of an area or country against a specific disease. Recovery by using 'vaccine' or 'natural cure' this hard immunity of any population is acquired through acquisition. This ‘herd immunity’ issue is very important because it is the only way to completely eradicate any viral or bacterial disease. This is how smallpox has been eradicated from the world, and it has been made possible by achieving ‘vaccine-based’ hard immunity. In the same way, diseases like tuberculosis and polio are now being eradicated from the world. Even in the case of the Kovid-19 epidemic, it is highly desirable to achieve 'herd immunity' to eradicate the disease.
  • Principles and Procedures for Acquiring Herd Immunity:
  • In simple terms, 'herd immunity' means that if the majority of the population (80-90%) somehow becomes resistant to a particular virus, then the rest of the population is also 'indirectly' protected from the virus. In what process is it possible? When a virus infects a whole new population, it can infect anyone in the whole population. As the disease progresses, the rate of infection. Gradually decreases (albeit slightly).
  • This is because over time, part of the infected patient recovers, and they can no longer spread the disease - resulting in their position among the population becoming more effective as a 'resistant shield' or 'human shield'. Thus, at a given time the number of these 'immune' individuals in the whole population increases in such a way that the rate of transmission of the disease reaches a certain level. That becomes zero (Maximum in the Curve) and is followed by a stage when the number of these 'resistant' people increase and their proportion or percentage in the whole population becomes such that the rate of infection begins to decrease significantly and so does the number of newly infected patients. The number also decreases. It is at this point that we say the whole population is rushing for hard immunity. In this way, the rate of infection is so negligible that the whole population achieves virtually 'herd immunity'.
  • Now the exact 'percentage' of a population that is built up as a 'shield' or 'immune' will depend on the unique characteristics of the disease-causing virus - more precisely. The initial rate of infection of the virus depends on the rate of infection or Ro quality. And to achieve ‘herd immunity’, at least 50% of the population has to acquire ‘immunity’ against that disease. Similarly, in the case of Ro = 3, 6%, and in the case of Ro = 4, 75% of the population should be made ‘word,” so that the entire population can get ‘herd immunity’. Now how is it possible to achieve the desired ‘herd immunity’ by building a certain section of the population ‘immune’?
  • Possible in two ways:
  • 1) Vaccines: In this method, a specific part or percentage of the population is made ‘immune’ by applying an effective vaccine directly to achieve ‘herd immunity’. This procedure is safe because no patient is at risk of death. But for is an effective ‘vaccine’ has to be in hand.
  • 2) Natural Infection and Achievement: To achieve the desired ‘herd immunity’ in this method, ‘disease-resistant’ people are created by naturally or intentionally infecting a certain part or percentage of the population and rehabilitating them. But trying to get ‘herd immunity’ in a natural way is extremely dangerous! Because the virus is very strong if its infection rate is very high and if the immune system of the people is weak, then a huge number of people have to die on the way to gain immunity of 70-80% of the people! So even though it has a scientific basis, judging from the human side, it is a terrible method! In addition, the health care system is about to collapse when additional patients are given 'specialized' treatment.
  • Covid-19 Herd Immunity-Possibilities:
  • Data on the Covid-19 epidemic has so far shown that the rate of initial infection with the virus, Ro, is about 2.2-3.4, despite all precautionary measures. In addition, the value of this Ro may be more or less due to the specific strain (type), strength, and climate of the virus that infects a population. Again, if the precautionary measures or programs are reduced or eliminated for any reason, the value of this Ro may increase further. Even then, if the CoV of the Covid-19 coronavirus has an average value of 3, about 6% of the world's 6 billion people need to be "immune" to achieve "herd immunity"! No effective vaccine for Covid-19 has been discovered so far, and a vaccine-based "herd immunity" is unlikely at this time, as it is unlikely to be available in the next 12-18 months.

  • On the other handattempts to achieve natural ‘herd immunity’ are extremely dangerous because the disease is deadly, highly contagious, and highly contagious. In the last five months, despite various measures of lock-down, social distance and other precautionary measures, about 4.6 million people have been infected and more than 300,000 have died, with a mortality rate of about 7.8%. However, this mortality rate is basically based on those who have tested 'positive'. Outside that, a lot of people have been infected but not tested, and a lot of people have died with corona symptoms whose number has not been counted! However, this high death rate indicates 6 billion people in the world how many millions of people have to die trying to achieve ‘herd immunity’ naturally!
  • There is no cure for the virus and anyone can die if the immune system is weakened. This is a terrible situation! In addition, the existing health care system will be dismantled to provide 'specialized' treatment to 20% of Kovid-19 infected patients. So trying to achieve ‘herd immunity’ naturally is not ‘realistic’ at all! Covid-19 Hard Immunity - Global Context: Rather than achieve a 'natural' herd immunity to the lack of an 'effective' vaccine for Covid-19 at the moment, countries around the world have tried to reduce the 'infection rate' by taking a number of precautionary measures, including lock-downs, maintaining social distance, and over a period. So there is no widespread 'death' or 'critique' until an effective 'vaccine' Law patients can be provided the necessary healthcare. Although some countries in the developed world slowed down at the very beginning of the epidemic, almost all countries have taken these precautionary measures as the severity of the disease has increased.
  • Now let's see - has any country tried to achieve 'herd immunity' in a natural way? Although some countries around the world have not officially acknowledged this, some programs have adopted have shown a kind of ‘effort’ to achieve ‘herd’ immunity. In mid-March, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson announced a policy not to close large gatherings or schools/colleges in Italy, Germany, France, or Spain. But when the number of infected patients skyrocketed, he was forced to instruct people to 'stay at home'.
  • Boris himself has recovered from Kovid-19. About 240,000 people have been infected with Covid-19 in the UK to date and more than 34,000 people have died. Sweden has never adopted a lock-down policy in Europe - schools, colleges, restaurants, playgrounds - everything they have left open. Sweden's foreign minister says they are not following "herd immunity theory" but relying on the public to prevent the spread of the disease through their own awareness! Sweden's chief epidemiologist says Stockholm will have "herd immunity" in the next few weeks! But such programs have already infected 30,000 people in Sweden and killed more than 3,500. The death toll in Sweden is much higher than in neighboring Finland (296) or Norway (232).
  • On the other hand, Brazil also says that they are against all kinds of lockdowns. They have opened everything restaurants, pubs, shopping malls everything! They are also feeling the results! So far, more than 200,000 people have been infected and more than 14,000 have died!

  • Covid-19 Herd Immunity - Bangladesh Background:
  • In Bangladesh too, from the last week of March, schools, and colleges have been closed, useful offices and courts have been kept open in a limited manner and a kind of 'lock-down' situation has been introduced. But due to a lack of far-reaching plans, we could not prepare ourselves very well even after getting enough time. Given our large population, density, and poor health, the most effective measures would be to limit international flights, properly screen returning passengers and arrange quarantine to reduce the risk of disease transmission to the population. , Beware of them Koyarentine natamulaka 14 days did not come into contact with them those who were unable to isolate by trees. As a result, Kovid-19 disease has spread in our community through those foreign returning passengers.

  • Besides, at that time we did not take the necessary preparations by identifying the deficiencies in our health system, as a result from which we noticed at the initial push of Corona how fragile our health system is! Many people are unable to get corona 'tested', and critically ill patients cannot be admitted to the hospital for 'specialized' treatment! We have not yet seen the virus in its full potential - thanks to the weaker strain of the virus and the general genetic traits of our population! But in the meantime, more than 20,000 people have been infected and 314 people have died. This mortality rate is the highest in South Asia - about 15%! However, due to the lack of tests, the number of deaths due to private infections and corona symptoms is higher than official estimates! At the moment, the number of infected patients, and the number of deaths is increasing every day!
  • Now let’s see how many people in our population need to be ‘infected’ and made ‘immune’ to achieve ‘herd immunity’ naturally? In the case of the Kovid-19 coronavirus, to achieve 'natural' hard immunity, about 6%, i.e. 12 crore people out of the 160 million population of Bangladesh, needs to be infected and made 'immune'. Now if the mortality rate of the infected patient is 10% then the number of deaths will be 1 crore 20 lakhs, if 10 percent is reduced to 1% then the number of deaths will be 12 lakhs, further reducing the death rate will be reduced by 100 percent to 0.1% Thousands! What a horrible situation!! Would we want to deliberately push such many people to their deaths, just to achieve 'naturally' hard immunity? It’s not ‘realistic’ at all, and we humans can’t even ask for it! Period.
  • Covid-19 Herd Immunity Reality and Outline of Lock-Down Relaxation:
  • World, and Bangladesh Considering the possibility of massive loss of life in Covid-19, it is not realistic to give up all precautionary measures at natural lock-down and social distance to achieve 'herd immunity', nor is it possible to stay in lock-down for a long time due to economic considerations. We need to find an effective way to do this. What can be done? If the lock-down has to be opened, at least a strategic plan has to be worked out.

  • Developed countries, considering the economic aspects, are gradually planning to gradually ease the lock-down in the reality of their countries by considering a number of issues:
  • • Maximize the use of relatively young people or recovering patients by keeping them fully at home as the elderly are at a high risk.
  • • Return emergency workers on a priority basis. • Allow for limited public gatherings and instruct the use of masks and gloves as needed while outdoors.
  • •Maintain safe physical distance at work, in restaurants, other businesses, religious places of worship or other public gatherings, and regular disinfection of hands and face.
  • • Considering the situation, step by step relaxation of restrictions on other commercial and economic activities, including international travel.
  • In the light of the abovewe also need to make a far-reaching plan to lift the lock-down step by step in the reality of our country. It would not be wrong to mention that in spite of various limitations and mismanagement, the last one and a half months of lockdown in Bangladesh has had some success due to dedicated efforts of all - the number of deaths due to the disease is still much less than many countries. But the announcement came when we needed to continue this lock-down process for a few more weeks to reach a safe or stable state while keeping this success intact. Opening malls for shopping. We will have a better understanding of the consequences of the end of this month. We could see in a few more weeks what the trend of the number of infected and dead people in Kovid-19 is and what can be done to make up for the shortfall in the health system even if it is a little in the meantime. It should be noted here that many people in the middle or upper class of the country were also somewhat mentally prepared to continue the lock-down this month of Ramadan or at least by the end of this month as a precaution.
  • The question may come that 30-32% of the very poor, poor, and low-income people (5.5-6.0 crore) have to go out for a living! But even then, there was or is a chance of a temporary emergency settlement! A large part of our annual development budget is still unused (about Rs. 1 lakh crore). Even if free rations were provided, they would not have to go out for a few weeks or months in search of a livelihood. West Bengal or Pakistan, however, has taken such measures for their low-income population, despite many limitations.
  • The government may consider the matter. Also, hat-bazaars can still be arranged in open spaces instead of shopping malls or enclosed spaces. Some traders have already announced that they will close their shopping malls for Eid due to public health concerns. I applaud their responsible initiative. An important achievement - our researchers have been able to find out the genome sequence of the coronavirus found in Bangladesh which will help us to monitor the mutation trend of this virus, understand its potency, or choose an effective vaccine or drug against it.
  • Another issue is whether the effectiveness of the plasma-based rapid testing kit invented in public health can be verified by cross-checking with PCR tests. It is made in our country, cheap and widely used. Although this worm will work by detecting the presence of disease-resistant antibodies instead of direct viruses, many false positives and negative results will come. So while the public health worm is not very 'reliable' to confirm the disease, at least for initial screening it can be used to confirm the disease later with PCR. But the most effective and important use of it may be to find out exactly how much of the population has gained 'immunity'. Our policy-makers can consider or reconsider the above issues in the current reality for the overall welfare of the people of the country.

  • Lastly, The only effective way to get rid of Covid-19 disease is to achieve 'herd immunity' and the safest way to achieve it is to bring the majority of the population under vaccination, and make them 'immune'. But an effective vaccine against the coronavirus could take at least another year, and it could take several more years for people around the globe to be vaccinated. Attempts to achieve ‘natural’ hard immunity in the absence of a vaccine are by no means ‘realistic’ because the disease is deadly, terribly contagious, rapidly contagious!
  • It is not humane to push billions of people to their deaths like this!! On the other hand, if we want to keep the wheel of the global economy running, we have no choice but to formulate far-reaching plans and lift the lock-down step by step while maintaining precautionary measures. In the next year, in an integrated global process, we will have an effective ‘vaccine’ for the prevention of Covid-19 disease or an effective ‘drug’ for the treatment of the disease. With the joint efforts of all, we will soon overcome this terrible epidemic - the world will return to its normal state again - in this hope!

  • After all, it should be born in mind that slow and steady wins the race. This means that treatment is urgent but to look after the net fruitful result of this after and before implementation for the welfare of people. Treatment is to save life not for killing people. The treatment of course will be the life-friendly for all. This is our expectation. People are dying by nature with the coronavirus but this never is acceptable to be dying people during treatment. The medical scientist and the country leader must think before implementing any treatment for saving lives. Pray for all and get a recover from this soon.


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